Gazimoff's geekBlog

When I was at University, I used to wear a coat in almost all seasons. It wasn’t because I was studying in a cold climate or because I didn’t own a sports jacket, it was because I needed the pockets. You see, back then there wasn’t this idea of multifunction devices, so I tended to carry a bundle of them with me. My mobile phone, MP3 player, dictaphone, USB keys, GameBoy, PalmPilot and more all sat in this coat like some kind of plate armour, just in case I needed then. Some geeky girls that I knew had a similar problem;their handbag would open to reveal some kind of Borg nest, a huge knot of cables and small plastic boxes.

Nowadays life is somewhat simpler. I wear a jacket and carry around an iPhone and a Palm Pre, one in each pocket. My music, photos, games and internet all fit into a single device that pretty much encompasses my personal life, while the other one holds everything I need for my work. Technology is moving from devices that perform a single function to those that are multi-purpose – after all, why buy, carry and maintain several devices when one will do the job?

Yesterday Apple announced the iPad, their new tablet computer. Designed to fill the gap between a smartphone and a laptop computer, their goal was to create a new device with a small set of core strengths. These start off with web browsing and email, but head into directions such as e-books, movies and other forms of entertainment. There’s even a productivity suite in the form of iWork, providing the capability to show and edit presentations, spreadsheets and documents.

There’s also been a lot of early criticism of the device, much as there was with the launch of the original iPhone. It doesn’t handle voice calls, it doesn’t support Flash, it doesn’t have a camera and it doesn’t support multitasking. While some of those are fair, it’s worth cutting beyond the surface and looking at the strategy behind the device and how it’s likely to evolve.

The easiest one is the comparison to e-book readers like the Amazon Kindle. The latest Kindle DX is priced at $489 and is arguably designed with a primary purpose of showing books. This means that if you want to carry around your book collection, the Kindle needs to be in your bag alongside your laptop and other gadgets. The iPad starts at just ten dollars more, and yet is in full colour. Amazon are already facing competition in the marketplace from a number of competing e-ink readers like the Nook from Barnes & Noble. There’s also a huge number that were announced at CES, all competing on just that single function. From a strategic point of view, it makes more sense to bundle books with other capabilities than it does to compete directly with an established device.

It’s not designed for use as a phone. The Kindle doesn’t support it, while it remains to be seen if the upcoming Android tablets will. Besides, anyone who remembers the Nokia N-gage will recall what it feels like to hold a generously proportioned device to your head. Yes, most of us have headsets these days, but it’s the feel of the thing. Besides, wouldn’t it be annoying if you’re in mid-flow typing out a blogpost or similar, when suddenly the application minimises just because someone’s calling you? There’s already talk of VOIP applications such as Skype making their way from the iPhone to the iPad, but I see this more as a mobile internet (like the Nokia Booklet 3G) than a mobile phone.

The lack of support for Adobe Flash may well be a problem to some. There are concerns that some Flash apps can be a resource hog (Zynga’s Farmville being a typical example of an app that grabs your browser and refuses to let go), while others may represent security risks (Twitter recently disabled some Flash widgets due to a security problem). Developers also now have a range of other creative elements such as Javascript, CSS and HTML5 in order to make websites more dynamic. Don’t forget, Apple also have their own video and audio codecs, and it’s possible that the iPad and iPhone will be used to drive support of these formats.

The inclusion of iWork for just under $10 doesn’t just offer a basic productivity suite, it also doubles up as a statement of intent to developers. By showing that the iPad can be used for business related tasks, developers are encouraged to consider what other work related apps would be suitable. The demo of Brushes at yesterday’s keynote really emphasised this direction of looking at how existing tasks could be redesigned to run on a tablet. I’m hoping for a lot of interesting software to come from this, from advanced blogging software to some creative design and project management tools. Pitched properly, this could become a strong collaborative tool and replace the netbook or laptop for small client meetings. Again, it makes strategic sense – Apple have obtained a chunk of consumer apps, but really want to stimulate growth in more business oriented directions.

Probably the biggest disappointment for mass media was the absence of an out-of-the-box newspaper or magazine subscription service to sit alongside iBooks. I’ve no doubt that it’ll happen – the New York Times demonstration shows as much – but I think they’ll have to work a touch harder to get a solution that works in an integrated way. There may well be demand for subscription based services, but publishing houses may well need to rally together in order to launch a service that consumers will buy in to. The presentation mechanism is mostly there – all that remains is delivery and pricing.

Looking on, what can we expect to see in the iPad’s future? I think that sooner or later some camera management capability will arrive, either in the form of a clip-on camera or by using Bluetooth to pair with a camera and support direct image capture and manipulation. I think we’ll also see advanced collaboration tools to allow owners to cluster together and share content through simple gestures. I also think that iBooks may even open up as a self-publishing mechanism, allowing authors to produce their own books, guides and manuals for sale on the platform.

The big losers out of this are the other tablet manufacturers. Google’s Android OS may provide great access to all of their services, but there’s still a gap when it comes to managing and providing access to a large amount of entertainment. That said, by licensing Android out to manufacturers, Google effectively minimises their own risk. Devices like the JooJoo now feel dead in the water, while the HP Slate may struggle due to the Windows 7 interface. Just like with Windows mobile phones, we may see the Slate emerge with an overlay interface to make it easy to use. Netbooks will still survive – as Steve Jobs said they’re just smaller, cheaper laptops.

The other big loser out of this is Adobe’s Flash technology. After being the mainstay of interactive and elegant applications on the Internet for a number of years and providing t he technology behind services like YouTube, it finally seems that the end may be approaching. Google are working on their own streaming video technology that will perform natively in the browser, while tools such as AJAX are encroaching on another front. Security conscious surfers and those with adblocking software routinely block Flash objects. It may well be in a few years time that Flash starts to fade from our screens in the same way that Real Media has.

Tags: android, Apple, HP, ipad, iPhone, joojoo, slate

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 28th, 2010 at 2:59 pm and is filed under Random Rants. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.